IF I WERE AN R, HOW WOULD I MANIPULATE THE IOWA CAUCUS

By John P. Flannery

IF I WERE AN R, HOW WOULD I MANIPULATE THE CAUCUS -

I was asked how the Rs might manipulate the caucus.

1st, there’s what they’ve done in Iowa to themselves.

They chop up the voting districts, 1,600 locations, and, if you don’t get 15% in a district, you get zero. But this year they may report the original alignment of the arriving voters.

So it’s a math puzzle of sorts, chopped up state wide.

So an R cross over defeats a candidate by showing up at an individual voting precinct, presumably with R cross over “friends,” who are there for the same reason, and by growing the “other” candidates support they “kill” the candidate they don’t want, depriving him/her of 15%.

This may take several iterations but that’s how it would work.

2nd, the Rs will want to choose a candidate across the state, that all Rs agree is their strategy for manipulating the caucus, and it’s presumably one of the things they’ve been talking about at all those GOTV meetings they’ve been holding, and why Trump was in the state for his vote in Iowa, the person that they all agree is the “sting,“ the candidate that’s a surprise, not an impossible choice, but, at the moment, (a) doesn’t appear likely or appears less like to beat Trump in the general election, or (b) will delay by winning these early challenges when the remaining candidates can amass behind one or other true front runner.

Delaying even until Super Tuesday delays money, momentum and the like.

So you likely don’t choose Biden or Sanders, as your pigeon, if you are an R gaming the caucus, you look for Buttigieg, or another down ballot choice. A person who can mess up the Dem-olition Derby.

Of course, maybe the Rs choose Sanders if they really believe they can paint him in a general election in such a way as to make him a non-threat.

They’ve been running the numbers, so this is not a kitchen table calculation.

Trump has already told the world that the candidate he fears most is Biden.

Ok, he may be wrong. But he believed it, just review the articles of impeachment to see how much Trump believes it, and the jury is out whether Trump’s attacks have made or compromised Biden’s efforts. Would love to see Trump’s polling figures.

Everybody who thinks this caucus is the on the road version of “Mr. Smith goes to Washington“ suffers from political astigmatism.

Politics is a contact sport — and sucker punches often carry the day.

JPF